BITCOIN'S MARCH MADNESS: FUTURES, FUNDING & FIZZLED FOMO

Welcome to mid-March 2025, where the only thing dropping faster than BTC funding rates... is your speculative appetite.

Let’s unpack this.

1. Bitcoin's Bull Market Just Got a Reality Check

Remember when Bitcoin hit $109K in January? Yeah, that was cute. Since then, it's taken a 30% nosedive—landing around $76.5K by March 11. Traders blame Trump tariffs, ETFs bleeding out ($6.4B in outflows over five weeks), and a general lack of those sweet, sweet "animal spirits."

Funding rates? At their lowest since October 2023. Translation: Everyone's chilling. Hedge funds? They're ghosting the basis trade. Altcoins? Flatter than a pancake. BTC dominance? Holding strong at ~60%, which is crypto-speak for "no one's touching the weird coins."

2. Corporates Go Full Send on Bitcoin Treasuries

If Bitcoin had a fan club, MicroStrategy (MSTR) would be president, vice president, and hype man.

• MSTR bought 20,356 BTC for $1.99 billion.
• Then casually dropped a $2 billion convertible note.
• Oh, and launched an ATM program for even more BTC shopping.

Metaplanet and Semler Scientific (SMLR) aren’t slouching either. Metaplanet’s BTC-yield hit 53.2% in Q1. Meanwhile, REX Shares launched a Bitcoin Convertible Bond ETF, giving institutions a way to ride the BTC treasury train (but with double taxation—so, maybe not that chill).

3. Texas: The New Wild West of Bitcoin Mining

Miners in Texas are watching three bills like it’s Game of Thrones:

• SB6 = new costs, longer delays. Boo.
• SB1942 = fast-track power approvals for flexible miners. Yay.
• SB388 = 50% of new power must be dispatchable (read: fossil fuel vibes). Meh.

Bottom line: If you're mining Bitcoin in Texas and not generating your own power, you might want to.

Chart of the Month: Bye-Bye, Basis Trades Futures roll yield? 3rd percentile. Funding rates? Depressed.

Translation: Hedge funds dipped out. Speculation? Sleeping. Market? Resetting expectations. It’s like the pre-ETF era again, except this time, everyone’s a little more tired.

Bitcoin’s Monthly Vibes Check:

• BTC price: $88,967 (down 12% this month)
• Daily transactions: Up 9%
• Fees: Low. Still $1.42 on average
• Miner revenues: Down 20%
• BTC addresses in profit: 90%, but losing steam
• Global power usage: Highest ever. Because miners gonna mine

Regulatory Plot Twist: Uncle Sam Hoards Bitcoin

On March 6, Trump pulled a reverse Uno card: instead of auctioning seized BTC, the U.S. is now keeping it. Welcome to the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve era.

Senator Lummis even reintroduced legislation to formalize it. Oh, and the SEC? Quietly dropped charges against Coinbase, DRW, and Robinhood. Big shift.

Meanwhile in Global Trade Land...

• Russia's now settling oil deals in BTC and crypto.
• Argentina gave Coinbase a license.
• Deutsche Börse and BBVA are offering BTC services.
• Abu Dhabi’s MGX just pumped $2B into Binance.

So, Where Are We Headed?

Speculation's on life support, miners are powering up, and governments are hoarding BTC like it’s 2009.

Corporate treasuries? Going full DeFi-mode.

The Fed? Probably watching from the sidelines, sipping coffee nervously.

As for you? Maybe it’s time to start watching that basis yield again. If the market’s gonna heat up, it’ll start there.

More soon. Stay notoko.

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